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You know, there—so there are a lot of factors that I think that once we fully adjust for them might make the wage data not so puzzling. Let me—now we talked about economic growth globally. Let me drill down on the U. The IMF is projecting 1. Goldman Sachs said 1. The White House says 3. And the thing about capital is that capital is the gift that keeps on giving, in the following sense, that if I decide, OK, hey, the U.
I find it remarkable that the ACP opposes physician assisted suicide, where a physician prescribes a drug which a patient may self-administer, and approves of abortion, in which a physician acts directly to end a life without the consent of that life. Vigorous management of pain and symptoms, such as dyspnea and nausea, at the end of life is ethical, even if the risk for shortening life is foreseeable, if the intent is to relieve those symptoms. I think that as an economist who looks at the numbers, that I think two things jump out at me. Accessed at www. Plagues in World History.
And I got to buy a lot of machines and buildings, so capital spending goes up. I finally got the thing up and running. And I turn the switch, and it goes on, and then what happens? I get output out of the new factory.
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And so output goes up again. So when you get a level adjusted capital, like our models suggest, then you get sustained growth, because you—the capital spending boom takes a while to happen because there are adjustment costs for capital, and because once the capital is in, then it starts producing output. And so that gives you more growth in the future. Write that down. Impossible for it to be 1. But for all that to happen, I think that linkage—this is an easy one for you, a softball—the linkage is got to be productivity, right?
We all learned in economics GDP is basically labor force times productivity growth. And therefore, to get to your 3. So that presumably is part of your forecast, or your thesis. And I can actually flip it another way, because one of these things that I did when I first got to the CEA was look at the models that government agencies use to forecast GDP over the next ten years, because I had to write down a ten-year forecast that I was going to sign my name to.
And one of the things that the government agencies have been doing forever and ever is they have this thing where they call it a potential GDP model, where they say, OK, I get this much labor force growth, this much capital stock growth, and this much productivity. And then that tells me how much GDP I could have. And then what I did with my staff, I brought in some really good time series guys, is I said: And it turns out that the potential GDP model has almost no forecasting value whatsoever.
In fact, it was outperformed by simple autoregressions and things like that for the time series guys. Really, really simple, stupid time series models outperformed it. And then we dug into why. And we wrote about this in the economic report. And it basically is, in part, because productivity is really hard to forecast.
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And it turns out that that thought is outperformed by autoregressive models. And so what we do for our forecast is we base it on, you know, basically, more momentum-type models.
But it does suggest that productivity needs to go up. And you might have noticed who got the Nobel Prize yesterday. It was the father of that literature. They might, some of them. One of the Fed. The Fed has been more openly critical of interest rate increases than his predecessors—.
Excuse me. Should a president be criticizing the Fed about interest rate increases? I think that we have to one hundred percent respect the independence of the Fed at all times. An independent Fed. I think that our nominees have been absolutely first-rate. He says what he thinks. But he respects the independence of the Fed. And about half of that trillion is due to the tax cuts and spending increases that were put in place in the last two years. Is there a strategy in the administration for addressing the deficit? Or should we not care about it?
No, you should definitely care about it.
The deficit is absolutely higher than anyone would like. And his priorities really to start with were tax reform, because we were the highest corporate tax place on Earth. And so those problems have been fixed. And GDP is six trillion dollars higher. So I would ask you, is that a trade that you would take? Very nice of you to come. Love to have a sidebar with you on that. But the question, you referred to the Nobel Prize and pollution, litter. What is the economic rationale for ignoring the climate change issue?
You can debate the science at the margins, but what is the economic rationale to keep outside the global consensus that this is economically positive to address? Coal miners notwithstanding, because they also have an upside. Yeah, well, thanks for the question.
And Bill Nordhaus got the Nobel Prize yesterday for really pathbreaking work folding climate science into economic models, which is a non-trivial—non-trivial thing. And I think his first paper on that was maybe or So my first paper in this space I think was , where Gib Metcalf and I wrote a paper on the incidents of the carbon tax. I spent a lot of time working on. That would be something you could expect from us. Given you tell us that the administration is all in favor of reducing trade barriers, why are they making life so difficult for the WTO, whose purpose is also to stimulate world trade?
And so while, you know, the WTO dispute resolution process is there, and we take advantage of it, and we tend to win, like, ninety-something percent of the time, then it still has led to a lot of negative outcomes. You mentioned that there is a need to pay attention to the deficit, and obviously growth may help to some extent, but are—should we look to the administration to make very significant cuts in programs like Social Security, Medicare, Affordable Care Act, et cetera?
In other words, is that a major focus of cutting? Or can you hit your targets without doing that? I think that as an economist who looks at the numbers, that I think two things jump out at me. And entitlements are part of the story over the very, very long run. It seems to me that many of the White House policies on immigration are anti-growth.
And you can argue that some of them are supportable by security concerns and understand the notion of trying to limit illegal immigrants. But some of the things that have restricted engineers and have restricted other green card holders seem to me simply to be anti-growth without dealing with security issues or others like that.
Would you like to comment? And that if—I think that the literature agrees that if you move towards more skill-based immigration, that that would be a positive for, you know, the trajectory of economic growth. Thank you for an interesting discussion. The U. But how do you kind of balance long-term economic growth with some other concerns? Thanks for the FDI question. And I think that there are many, many factors to consider. And the basic idea is that a digital computer that we basically use prime number factorization to encode things because a digital computer is really—it takes them a really long time to solve the problems that they would need to decode things.
But prime number factorization is something, for example, that quantum computers can do really, really quickly. The final thought about foreign direct investment is that the data on foreign direct investment are looking very noisy and weird lately. And I thought maybe you were going to ask about that.
And then firms are using that money to invest, to pay bonuses and higher wages, and also to repurchase shares. When they repurchase the shares, then to the extent that the share was held by a foreigner, it shows up as, like, a decline in investment—foreign direct investment. And so that there are some sort of funny things going on in that data right now that, if you like, you could—you know, someone could follow up and ask me a question about it after the event. Thank you.
Thanks for that. So tax 2. And then, you know, Congress basically decided to prioritize everything this year. But I know that he cares a lot about it. But we also have, like, a lot of stuff in the can that I think is really good stuff. I think those objectives should be shared by anyone who looks at the data. I think the history of infrastructure is that if you can start to move it, you can usually get broad bipartisan support for it, because everybody understands, like, how bad the roads are.
And the roads are bad in blue states and red states, right? I mean, infrastructure was a big part of his campaign. Why not articulate what it is exactly he wants to do? You know what? But I think that the president had a view, if you go back and look at the tax bill, that we sort of stated our objectives, that we had some non-negotiables, and there were just big principles—three or four things—and then we looked forward to working with Congress to get to the finish line. Along the way, of course, we always expressed our opinions about things.
So for example, my favorite thing in the tax bill is the opportunity zone thing, which is something that I wrote a lot about before I went into the White House and was a high priority for us in the White House. And that the president decided with the tax bill to lead with, you know, the big objectives, the big principles, and then to work sort of behind the scenes with Congress to come up with something that would pass. Not to draw lines in the sand, as previous presidents have done, but rather to negotiate getting to—and it worked.
Thank you very much for your presentation and your service to our country. And oil prices are going up, up, and away. Can you explain this? And when might we see oil prices going down?
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But, no, I think that, you know, output is going up, but world demand is too. And when the global economy is strong, then oil prices tend to increase. And those increases can be quite non-linear, as you—as this guy writes about. I think that if the IMF revisions of the growth forecast is correct, then that would put less pressure on oil prices. I wanted to go back to China, if I might.
Obviously this trade skirmish has caused some uncertainty and damage in the financial markets, particularly in China, actually. Can you talk about whether the administration has a plan B if China tanks the bond market, which, you know, would obviously hurt China too? And, you know, generally what goes on is that—you know, I have friends around hedge funds. And so, yeah, absolutely the administration, Secretary Mnuchin, follows these things closely.
But I did do that before we signed off on it last year. And when we did, then our growth forecast was not inconsistent with the CBO interest rate outlook or the Fed forward guidance. But in the last few weeks, long rates have gone up, like, fifty basis points. Did you expect that? Are you surprised by that? Are you unhappy about that? Is it just part of a normal economic recovery cycle? How should we think about it? And there are a lot of models that have that characteristic.
The great economic growth, and it started with deregulation, and then the tax cuts came in afterwards because it went to care—administration wanted to take care of Obamacare first. Has the CEA tried to quantify the impact of deregulation? Yeah, thanks. So I think that deregulation is very important. And basically, what happened in the first year of the Trump regulation is that new regulations stopped, and people got to work studying old regulations and thinking about, like, how to roll them back.
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And the thing that sort of struck us at CEA when we analyzed the response—especially as small businesses—to the freeze in regulation was that it was a lot bigger than we thought. And then we dug into it more. I got to hire engineers. And so I think that one of the things that explains the kind of explosion in, say, small business sentiment and other things when we froze regulations is that new regulations were growing at a really radical pace in the—you know, the eight years before President Trump went in.
You know, and the hard part is that regulation is really hard to measure. But regulations grew at a very high rate and then they kind of stopped doing so. And that had a big positive effect on sentiment and investment in capital spending. And now deregulation is something that is going on full time all the time. And so let me just give you an example of a really small one, but an example of how much fun it is to be at OIRA right now.
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And so you had to have a test flight at night. And then people studied it. They talked to people who know about these things. And the Coast Guard has a lot of helicopters and stuff. And they figured out that alternatively, you could turn the lights on in the helicopter inside a dark room. And that you could construct a test that would be as effective but cost basically nothing.
And so they changed that.
And so I know that Steve wants to avoid the weeds, but sometimes the weeds are fun. Or has it dropped to two percent? Or are we just having a sugar high? Well, so, thank you. I had one of those moments with this that suggests that I think three percent is, like, the old normal is new normal. And then we are going to increment the baseline based on what we thought the tax reform effect would be, and so on.
And the baseline that came out of that model before Trump policy—when we ran it last fall, when we wrote about this in the economic report—was that growth would be 2. And we have. And I think that can be sustained. So maybe what happens is that the politics and economics is self-correcting. And then when you get low growth, then you elect people who change policy. And so therefore you get back to three percent. Just a very general question. I think a lot of us have probably read the Woodward book, which paints a portrait of the White House as being a dysfunction—.
Well, probably a few people here have. But it paints a portrait of a White House in chaos and dysfunction and verging on madness at times. What are—what are those interactions like? Does he ask good questions? What are the debates like? Just to give us a little bit of a picture of that? I work with—Steve and I were talking about this at lunch—that I work with a great group of people that are fun to hang around with. I love going to work every day. But it happens much less now. But I really enjoy going to work every day. And the thing I can say is the biggest surprise for me, not knowing the president, is how much he enjoys consuming, you know, economic product, and economic data, talking through things.
Moisture is the main reason for the formation of corrosion, right?
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It is therefore necessary that storage containers — such as large metal tanks — be designed in such a way as to ensure a good drainage of water. For this to be the case, the container covers must be positioned so that the water flows freely and can be easily cleaned. Another necessary element is the possibility of moving the tanks freely, so you need to find a suitable place for them already at the design stage. Designers creating equipment that transports heat must remember that for corrosion control to be effective, cold or warm spots can not form on them. For that to be the case, this type of equipment must have a constant or slightly changing temperature.
If it is different, cold and heat points will form on its surface, which increases the risk of corrosion. Warm points may be the reason for the appearance of thermo-galvanic corrosion. Cold, on the other hand, creates moisture that leads to corrosion if we do not deal with it quickly enough. For corrosion control to be effective, designers must remember to adjust the wall thickness accordingly. The point is that corrosion constantly eats metal and reduces its thickness.
Is it enough to create walls twice as thick as normal? This method is not often used by designers. The problem here is that it is not always possible to do this. For example, because the wall thickness still needs to meet mechanical requirements such as weight, pressure or pressure. Another factor due to which this method is not used so often is the fact that it significantly increases the costs of the entire construction. This is not always a justified expense.
Therefore, you need to check the cost-benefit relationship to make sure it is something you can afford or not. Instead, they recommend using WD from time to time to help reduce the risk of corrosion. Minimizing cavities is not just a topic for the dentist. It is also important in the case of architecture. Because in projects that have a lot of holes and depressions, moisture will accumulate, which with an additional lack of circulation from these places, will quickly cause the appearance of corrosion.
That is why designers must avoid creating any type of folds, depressions — the so-called cavities. Considering this fact, the use of WD should be recommended for everyone for whom corrosion control is important. Therefore, they must understand the environment in which their projects will be created and adapt them to it.
For example, if a metal object is to be purchased by an individual customer who lives close to you, it will be important to use materials that are as moisture resistant as possible.